Page 28 - DIY Investor Magazine | Issue 39
P. 28

  Nov 2023 28
DIY Investor Magazine ·
Saltydog Investor is adding to its India fund, as the emerging market delivers economic and stock market growth.
The India/Indian Subcontinent sector was one of the three Investment Association (IA) sectors that had made one-month gains in May, June and July. The other two were the Standard Money Market and Short-Term Money Market sectors.
Most sectors ended the month down, but India/India Subcontinent gained 1% in August and was the best- performing sector in September, up 4.7%.
We monitor several funds that invest in India; Jupiter India fund was the best so on 31 Aug our Ocean Liner portfolio invested and it has since risen 7.8%.
Historically India’s growth has lagged China, but it perhaps now looks a more attractive option for foreign investors as China is not great at sticking to internationally agreed business standards, and has faced numerous allegations of human rights abuses. In the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report, growth forecasts for India look impressive.
The IMF was founded in 1944 during the UN Monetary and Financial Conference, in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. Its aim was to establish a new international monetary and financial
order; the US dollar, which was pegged to the price of gold, became the primary reserve currency, taking over from sterling, It started with 40 members, but now includes 190 countries, to ‘foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world’.
As well as ensuring monetary stability, and providing financial and technical assistance, the IMF researches economic and financial issues, publishing its World Economic Outlook twice a year, assessing the global economic situation, offering economic forecasts, analysis of trends, and insights into the state of the world economy.
The latest report begins by saying ‘the baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, well below the historical average of 3.8%’.
It then gives projections for individual countries. The US shows 2.1% growth in 2022, and a similar figure for this year, but it then drops to 1.5% in 2024. In the UK we are looking at 4.1% in 2022, but only 0.5% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024. Comparable figures for China are 3% in 2022, which is low by its standards, but it goes up to 5% in 2023 before falling to 4.2% in 2024. The star performer is India. It grew 7.2% in 2022 and is forecasted to grow 6.3% this year and next.
If India performs as well as the IMF suggests, Indian funds could continue to be a good place to be invested.
Our Tugboat portfolio invested in the Jupiter India fund in September, and last week we added to both our holdings.
For more information about Saltydog Investor, or to take the two- month free trial, go to
   I suggested several reasons why India might have been doing well.
It has a wealth of natural resources, a large and relatively young population and an expanding middle class with rising wealth. It still gains a lot of its revenue from exports but also has a large domestic market.
Since 2014, PM Narendra Modi has implemented several policies to boost the economy, including the National Infrastructure Pipeline, Make in India campaign, and Startup India initiative, which are working.

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