DIY Investor Magazine
/
March 2016
15
Will they agitate for another referendum? Likely yes,
making the title even more apt!
A poll in 26th February’s Evening Standard showed the
current state of affairs as 53% voting out, 47% voting to
stay.
Another effect of the disappointed majority will be the
impact it has on the political parties. If we take the
Conservatives there are a number of high profile people
on either side of the divide, e.g. David Cameron and
Boris Johnson. Can the loser put the defeat to one-
side and move on? Or will we see the party splinter
into two factions leading to the creation of a new party,
or defections to UKIP or the Liberal Democrats? How
would this impact on future elections and government;
more coalitions?
Other than the unity of our political parties there is
the unity of the nation to consider. Commentators are
already suggesting that Scotland wishes to stay in the
EU, if we vote to leave will they then vote to leave us?
Will the regions of England that lose the benefit of EU
investment see it replaced by government spending, if
not will they want devolution and to re-join the EU?
One other point which the debate highlighted was
demographics, older people are more likely than
younger people to vote “out”. The following graph was
published on the Channel 4 website on February 19th
this year:
At this point I will admit to being in the middle range
of this chart. The question it poses is, why is there this
seemingly large demographic split? Logically it can be
explained by the fact that those of us below 54, would
have been, at worst, 11 when we joined what was then
the EEC in 1973. Therefore we cannot really remember
what it was like not being a member.
I decided to speak with some people in the older of
the three age bands quoted; almost unanimously they
intended to vote to leave, and therefore I asked why?
What they said was based around Empire, being a
great nation, we fought two wars against Germany and
won, immigration, and waste of money. Strangely, no-
one mentioned winning a world cup!
Now, I have always lived in London. What I see now is a
thriving multi-cultural city, one that stands comparison
with the other great cities of the world, and often it is a
favourable comparison. My son works and lives for part
of the year in New York, and in his words, “London is
cool”. He even tells me that the underground is better
than the New York subway!
The picture of London, and of the UK I have now isn’t
the one I had when I was growing up. I remember
strikes, inflation (more specifically, my parents worrying
about it), queuing for petrol, but my overwhelming
memory is that it was grey and drab. In case anyone
can’t remember, the winter of 1978-79 was christened
the “Winter of Discontent” because of the widespread
strikes including refuse collectors, leading to Leicester
Square being submerged in rubbish sacks
Maybe the London I know is different because it
has become more international, more cosmopolitan,
perhaps because we have assimilated more European
culture, or way of living?
Whatever the outcome on June 23rd, I fear ‘the never
ending story’ will continue…………….
