DIY Investor Magazine
/
March 2017
47
APRIL MARKET
SEASONALITY EFFECTS & ANOMOLIES
April is one of the most exciting months for investors!
Five years ago, April was the strongest month for the
stock market in the year, but it now ranks second behind
December. The two months have been switching first
and second places for quite a few years. For the last
few years it has been December in top spot, but April is
not far behind.
Interestingly, this characteristic is not unique to the UK
market; a study of 70 markets worldwide found that the
strongest months for shares were (in descending order)
December, January and April.
On average, the market rises 1.8% in this month; and
the probability of a positive return in the month is 72%.
Since 2003, the market has only fallen three times
in April, although this doesn’t match the earlier
performance: from 1971 the market rose in April every
The latest edition of Stephen Eckett’s fascinating reference book may have you
scratching your head in search of a rational explanation for what is presented,
but one thing is for sure, you’ll return to it again and again as 2017 unfolds.
year for 15 years – a recent record for any month.
The market often gets off to a strong start in the month
– the first trading day of April is the third strongest first
trading day of all months in the year.
The market then tends to be fairly flat for the middle two
weeks and then rises strongly in the final week.
The two days either side of the Easter break are
abnormally strong, April has historically been a strong
month for oil, and the FTSE 100 normally fares well
against the S&P 500; however – beware April 8th as it is
the third weakest day of the year for shares!
The great seasonality significance of April is that it
is the last month in the strong part of the six-month
cycle (November-April) and therefore investors may be
reducing their exposure to equities ahead of May
To purchase this book for the special DIY Investor price of £18 + P&P (RRP £25) use the following promotional
code when checking out at the Harriman House online bookshop: DiYEE15.
